Gammons: There's about a 20 percent chance that Halladay gets traded

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This entry was posted on 7/10/2009 6:08 PM and is filed under uncategorized.

A few interesting things from's Peter Gammons during this week's chat with Mike and Mike on Friday morning. With July now here, the talk goes to the trade deadline and the 200 inning workhorse in the room that everybody wants to talk about: Roy Halladay.

Here's what Gammons thinks about the Toronto Blue Jays ace, who should net a gaggle of minor league prospects if he's dealt away from the Jays. Halladay's career numbers are pretty amazing to look at, and his numbers in the second half of the season are jaw-dropping given how hard the 32-year-old has had to work over the years.

Among the best nuggets:

*The Phillies have the prospects to get a deal done with Toronto for Halladay if that's what they want to do. Gammons lists off Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown as the prospects most likely to go to Toronto.

*The St. Louis Cardinals could be in on Halladay, but they would need to swing a three-team deal with somebody in order to get enough pitching to interest JP Ricciardi and Toronto. Gammons suggests that the Cardinals could make a deal happen if they included Boston and Clay Buchholz was dealt from Boston in a three-team swap. Gammons warns, however, that he doesn't think a three-team deal would work.

*Gammons says he doesn't think Halladay will be traded, and says there's a 20 percent chance of Toronto moving on a deal with their ace.
The name Roy Halladay has been out there all of this week. What have you been hearing? PG: I think there’s a chance with Philadelphia, and I know the Phillies are talking very seriously about Pedro Martinez. I don’t think that would preclude them from going after Halladay. They do have the prospects. If they trade Kyle Drabek and they trade Michael Taylor the outfielder or Dominic Brown and a couple of others then maybe that will get it done. I know he would go there even if it’s a great hitter’s park.

But that remains to be seen. I know the Cardinals are very interested and they said they would trade three or four of their best prospects. I’m a little skeptical in that A) I don’t know that they would take on the money and B] I’m not sure they have the pitching prospects.

They’d have to maneuver around and take one of their bats out of their organization and maybe trade it to Boston for Clay Buchholz and make that part of the deal. I’m still not sure that a three-team deal would work out. I think there’s about a 20 percent chance that Halladay gets traded.

Traded this year or traded next year? PG: Well, this year. Now, his value would be much greater now than it will be at this time next year. The same thing with Cliff Lee, although I still believe – that unless they get absolutely blown away – (Cleveland) won’t do anything with Cliff Lee. But just come back to Mark Teixeira. When Mark Teixeira still had a year and two months left to free agency, the Texas Rangers made a franchise-changing trade with Atlanta getting four really good young players.

A year later when (Teixeira) had only two months left all the Braves got was Casey Kotchman. So if J.P. Ricciardi is going to get four players then this is the time to do it. But I’m just not sure in this financial climate that a team can afford to give up four or five of their best minor league players even for a pitcher as great as Halladay is.

Now if you do make the deal, not only are you on the hook for $15 million, but to make the deal stick you’re going to have to sign him to an extension. Which might be 4X$17 (million) or something like that and I don’t know how economically viable that is right now.

If not Halladay, then who? Who is on the short list of difference-making players that could be moved between now and the end of the month? PG: I think it’s very few. Seattle keeps staying in it. I thought both Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn would be very good trade tools, but Jack Zduriencik, look they’re only 10 ½ games out and they probably have the best pitcher in the division in Felix Hernandez so you don’t want to ever give up.

So, you don’t want to give up and ownership has never wanted to say to the people in Seattle ‘Oh by the way we’re charging you premium money for the last months of the season but we’re building to the future’ so I’m not sure that that works.

I don’t really see a lot that can happen. I think people will bounce around a lot and still look around. I think Washington will move a Nick Johnson or something like that, and Arizona with Doug Davis or a reliever. They’ve already traded Tony Pena. There are not a lot of players that can move: Garret Atkins, Freddy Sanchez. Those aren’t franchise-changing players.



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