One thing to keep in mind when talking about the pitch surplus and when to pull the trigger on burly Sox right-hander Brad Penny: the big right-hander has gained a well-earned reputation as a guy that doesn’t slave for long hours on the treadmill and that’s sure to have an effect on his season.

Since 2005, the 31-year-old Penny has battled some very real second-half decline in his numbers and that doesn’t appear likely to change as he gets older and moves into MLB’s middle-age bracket.

The best course of action with the 6-foot-4, 230-pound slab of beef -- a pitcher that we’ve praised as “better than expected” but is still sitting with a 5.32 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and a .305 batting average against after his first 66 innings of work – is to make a deal before he hits the crescendo of this year’s comeback from shoulder problems, and then starts to sink back down in terms of overall value and performance.

Penny has clearly made some fans in the organization and has friends in high places dotted along Boston’s roster, and endeared himself to the fans when he drilled A-Rod between the shoulder blades with a heater last week.

"You get to know guys. When they come through that door the first day of spring training, we want them to feel welcome. It makes them easier to be better players,” said Sox manager Terry Francona last weekend. This kid has been such a pleasure. He just does everything you ask. He competes. He’s getting better. (I’ve) seen him getting confident. Pitches until you take the ball away. I’ve enjoyed the [heck] out of this. (He has) been unbelievable.

“He's bought into everything. Been nothing but, 'Hey what do you want me to do?’ He’s fun. He makes our job fun. When he’s not been the best, he hasn’t made excuses -- 'Sorry, I’ll do better.' And he goes to work. That’s kind of what we ask. That makes it fun. (It’s) nice to compete with guys like that.”

But just check out the numbers since the 2005 season when gauging just how much the Sox can expect to get out of their accountable righty going forward.

Penny’s pre-All-Star game starts since then have seen him put up a 30-17 record in 407 2/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA (159 earned runs allowed) that helped him get selected to a pair of All-Star game appearances as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers – and ultimately helped him hang on for a pair of 16 win seasons.

Penny’s post-All-Star break numbers aren’t quite so encouraging: a 15-14 record in 259 1/3 innings with a 5.00 ERA and a more than 30 point jump in terms of batting average against.

Some have said that the Red Sox should wait until they get an “over the moon” offer for Penny, who was hitting 98-mph with his fastball while tossing up six shutout innings in his last start against the New York Yankees. There’s a point where it’s prudent to hold on to an asset to make sure that the value has reached it’s apex, and then there’s a distinct point where holding on to an asset becomes a greedy exercise that ultimately hurts the team in baseball.

NL Teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, New York Mets and Houston Astros are still within striking distance of divisional titles and playoff berths while sitting in the bottom half of the big leagues in terms of starting pitcher’s ERA (Philly is dead-last in the NL with a 5.36 ERA from their starters this season), and would be willing to make the gamble that Penny throwing 95-mph could be all different kinds of light’s out toeing the rubber in the Senior Circuit.

Is it worth trading for 24-year-old Phillies prospect Jason Donald and strengthening Boston’s organizational depth up-the-middle with a kid that’s displayed an ability to hit for average, get on base, steal a bag or two and even occasionally hit a home run while playing solid defense – even if Donald is now out 4-6 weeks after getting a torn meniscus repaired – at the minor league level?
Is Donald even being offered in any kind of Penny talks, or will the Sox have to sweeten the pot to land that level of yield in return for their veteran starting pitcher?

All good questions, but the clearest answer with John Smoltz on the verge of a return this week and Clay Buchholz chomping at the bit in Pawtucket is an easy one. Deal Penny before the inevitable second-half swoon shows up, and you have nothing to show for such a prudent one-year signing this winter.   

 

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