The Red Sox should have predicted – and most likely did given their effort to collect as many starting rotation arms as possible this winter – exactly what’s happening to an exasperated Jon Lester thus far this season.

The 25-year-old left-hander had a breakout year in 2008 while bounding out as the rotational ace as Josh Beckett battled injuries that reduced his velocity and caused him to struggle in the postseason.

But Lester is clearly now paying the price for last year’s success that came right along with the 210 1/3 innings pitched during the regular season – along with another 26 1/3 high-stress innings as Boston’s only stopper during the playoffs.

The 237 total innings – in regular season and postseason -- were the most a Sox starter had amassed since Curt Schilling worked his mound workhorse magic for the 2004 edition of the Olde Towne Team. The 2008 workload came after Lester hadn’t pitched even as many as 155 innings as a professional baseball pitcher.

There were certainly going to be ramifications for the heavy diet of innings placed on Lester’s docket last season.

The only real rest last season for the lefty was nearly ten days of R&R built up around the All-Star break that allowed the youngster to reload and keep pounding the zone down the stretch.

This season’s numbers scream out a 2008 hangover for Lester: 6.51 ERA in eight starts, 60 hits allowed in 47 innings pitched, 10 home runs allowed and a .311 batting average against. Lester’s statistics spell out a pitcher that’s experiencing serious difficulty maintaining the pitch-to-pitch consistency he had for nearly the entire wire-to-wire run in 2008.

Dig deeper and the picture becomes even clearer that Lester is experiencing fatigue-related issues this season.

Once Lester has crossed past the pitch No. 76 threshold in each of his eight starts, his numbers begin to drop precipitously. The big southpaw has a 7.31 ERA and has allowed 27 hits and seven home runs in only 16 innings pitched after he’s crossed over the 75^th pitch of an outing this season.

Another potential sign of fatigue is the difficulty that Lester seems to have in bringing his best stuff with him right out of the chute in the first inning. During his first 15 pitches of the game, Lester is getting banged around to the tune of a 15.88 ERA in 5 1/3 innings with seven hits and 10 runs allowed.

From there Lester loosens up and has a 3.85 ERA on pitches 16-75 and looks much more like the bright young left-handed starter that seemingly cranked out quality starts last summer with an almost effortless-looking style.

Basically Lester is tiring in the last few innings of starts where last season he had more left in the tank, and seemed to get stronger and nastier as the game went on. The reverse is true this year.

Lester is having trouble getting loose in the first inning and is really having serious technical difficulties finishing off hitters in the final innings of his starts. The young lefty has already revealed some pent-up frustration about his situation this season, and it’s really bubbled over in his last two starts after flashing moments of brilliance in each of those outings.

Lester seemed to be on the verge of a breakout performance that would set him on the right path again, but perhaps it’s time to acknowledge the effect of last season’s workload on the sturdy lefty.

Then it’s time to lower expectations for Lester this season.

Perhaps 190 innings of a 4.50 ERA with 10-12 wins is more in the offing as he deals with the effect that last year’s formidable workload had on the brilliant young pitcher.

There’s no shame in admitting that Lester is paying a little bit of a price for the tremendous work he did last season, and it might even put a pitcher at ease that clearly isn’t sure what’s going haywire with his 2009 season.