I couldn't agree with
Ken Rosenthal more...Josh Beckett is 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in one regular season start and one postseason start on three day's rest. Yes, he made both of these starts several years ago when he was a younger man with less wear and tear on his arm but this is a matter of pitching your ace twice in the last four games of a highly competitive series.
The Sox will regret not wheeling him out there tonight and then having him on regular rest for a potential Game 7. Tim Wakefield has had two cortisone shots in his shoulder over the last two months, had an 8.76 ERA and allowed hitters to slam away at a .361 clip against him in five September starts and hasn't started a non-simulated game since Set. 29.
Doesn't paint a pretty picture, does it?
The ProJo's
Sean McAdam also doesn't appear to agree with the decision of Wakefield over Beckett...and it makes me think of the story that Peter Gammons told on 890 ESPN last week when I asked him about it. Here's the excerpt:
"But let’s just say that Josh throws 95-100 pitches and he can come back in Game 4 and they’re down 2-1 then I don’t see any reason why they don’t come back with him. Remember the story hasn’t been about the power for Beckett this year as much as it’s been about the command.
This is a guy that basically threw 96-99 last year but this year in the start against the Angels the other night he basically was sitting 94-mph – he threw a couple at 96 – but it was all about command with that cutter, throwing the curveball occasionally, and that great change up that he’s come up with…the two-seamer. It was all about command with him and it’s not about ‘oh how hard can he throw’.
And we all saw in 2003 when he came out in 2003 to Yankee Stadium on three days rest and showed that he can do it. I remember being at the World Series, and I was hanging out early at the ballpark with A.J. Burnett and three or four other guys on that staff and we were talking about how cocky Josh was. He’s not as cocky now as he was then, but I remember A.J. Burnett saying to us ‘look what we’re talking about right now…that’s why there is no chance, no chance that the Yankees are going to win tonight’
Everybody on the Marlins believed that with Josh Beckett nobody was going to beat them, and if they felt that way about him as a 23-year-old pitching on three day’s rest then there’s no way the Red Sox shouldn’t feel that way about him now at 27.
Here's the article from Rosenthal:
CLEVELAND - This could be the tipping point, the moment when the over-protection of starting pitchers finally is deemed to have gone too far.
But instead of pitching right-hander Josh Beckett on three days rest in Game 4, then bringing him back on normal rest in a potential Game 7, they're going to use him only once.
That's right, instead of turning to the game's hottest pitcher to avoid a potential three-games-to-one deficit, the Sox are going to start righty Tim Wakefield, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 29 due to a shoulder problem.
It's difficult to view their decision too harshly; the Sox know their players better than anyone else, and they believe a four-man rotation provides them with the best chance to win.
Still, it's certainly fair to ask whether the Sox are outsmarting themselves, whether all this micro-management is worthwhile.
Four years ago, Beckett turned in one of the greatest performances in World Series history on three days rest, pitching a five-hit shutout in the Marlins' clincher against the Yankees.
He still is only 27. But now, instead of playing for crusty old Jack McKeon, he pitches for a team that pays slavish attention to pitch counts and statistical data.
Rest assured, this is not solely manager Terry Francona's call. The Red Sox, like many clubs today, are run from the top down, with the front office heavily involved in decisions of this nature.
To this point, the Sox's approach has served them undeniably well — they were particularly successful this season managing the workload of closer Jonathan Papelbon.
But a team that is two losses away from elimination is in no position to be dispassionate. A team that is two losses away from elimination — a $143 million team, no less — needs to take its best shot.
The Sox's rationale is that at this late stage, they need to give their top three starters — Beckett and right-handers Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka — as much rest as possible.
They're hardly alone in such thinking; this is 21st-century baseball. Pitchers are all but sealed in bubble wrap, and to what end? Nearly all of ‘em get hurt, anyway.
By starting Game 5, Beckett will pitch on five or more days rest for the sixth straight start — an idea that holds merit, considering he already has worked a career-high 215 2/3 innings and was brilliant on long rest in both of his playoff starts.
Schilling and Matsuzaka, meanwhile, each would pitch with an extra day's rest in Games 6 and 7, if necessary — another seemingly logical plan, considering that Schilling turns 41 on Nov. 14 and Matsuzaka is nearing the end of a draining first season in Major League Baseball.
Since the inception of the three-round postseason format in 1995, teams that have used pitchers on short rest in the post-season are a horrid 47-69, according to STATS LLC. Beckett's shutout of the Yankees in '03 was an exception, and it's hardly guaranteed that he would turn in a repeat performance.
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after each lasting only 4 2/3 innings in their first starts of this series, hardly inspire confidence for 6 and 7.
Schilling's problem isn't that he needs more rest; it's that he needs to better execute his pitches. The same might be said of Matsuzaka, who wasn't horrible Monday night, but also wasn't good enough.
Granted, all this talk might amount to so much wasted breath if Wakefield pitches competitively in Game 4 and the Sox's offense gets untracked against Indians right-hander Paul Byrd. But the issue goes beyond one pitcher, one team and one series.
The issue is whether the entire sport has gotten too carried away with babying pitchers.
And if the Sox lose this series because they were too careful with Josh Beckett, the argument will rage like never before.
