Here's some ALCS thoughts from Hall of Famer Peter Gammons, and I'm not posting this simply because he agrees with what I've been saying for a week: this series could come down to Indians closer Joe Borowski and his failure to close down the Sox.
Boston looked unstoppable in Game 1 by knocking Sabathia out in the fifth inning and letting Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz loose on opposing pitching staffs, but the seven game series simply won't be that easy.
Here's
the man during his Thursday afternoon sit-down with Mike Felger on 890 ESPN:
PG: I’m a little cold, I’m a little wet but I’m feeling great because this has all of the makings of being really a great series. You have the three best pitchers in the American League on these two teams.
Start with how the Red Sox have configured their playoff roster?
PG: To start with left-handed hitters have four hits against C.C. all season long, so you’re better off with Bobby Kielty, who at least is 9-for-29 lifetime against him. As long as Bruce Froemming isn’t embarrassing baseball behind the plate as he was in Game 1 of that Yankees series, C.C. is so tough on left-handers that you want to put as many right-handed bats in the lineup as possible. J.D. will play against Carmona in Game 2, and I think it makes a lot of sense.
These match-ups I think are phenomenal. Schilling pitched so well in that Anaheim game and he’s made such a transition from being that old fastball down and away, down and away and then up in the zone with that fastball guy to throwing 88 to 90 with a curveball, cutter and then to righties he’s switched his change up grip from having it in his palm to a three finger circle change grip.
It’s unbelievable and I thought it was fascinating after he won the game in Anaheim that he talked about how as the season went on he really learned to listen to John Farrell and really allowed himself to completely change. It’s an amazing story that an athlete at the age of 40 can make this kind of transition and completely change his style again.
Curt kind of reinvented himself when he first came over to [Boston] in 2004 and I remember him saying to me in April that this wasn’t the National League and he was going to have to change the way he pitched and have to learn to pitch inside. He’s completely revamped the way he is as a pitcher and I think it makes a lot of sense.
The guy is 9-1 with a 1.93 career in the post-season and he’s the best post-season pitcher in big league history and I actually went back and checked in three of those starts he allowed zero, one or two runs and left with leads and should actually be 12-3 with a 1.93 career in those post-season starts. Go to your little web sites and both of them are the best of all time.
Question: Did I hear you say that Sabathia gave up only four hits to left-handers this season?
PG: Actually it’s four walks and 75 strikeouts against left-handers this year. He never walks lefties. You get no advantage with a left-hander and that slider is so great and he pounds the inside of the strike zone so much to a left-hander that you’re much better off just going with a right-handed hitter against him.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cy Young vote comes down to Sabathia and Beckett and the fact that C.C. went 5-1 against Johan Santana and Just Verlander probably will end up winning it for [Sabathia] and the only statistic he trailed Beckett in was wins.
That said they’re both great pitchers, and I’m not sure that I wouldn’t want to have Josh Beckett over Sabathia if I had only one game to play. And then you add in Carmona who was second in the league in ERA with a phenomenal record and against Schilling. It just has the makings of just great theater. And we get it twice. They’ll match up twice in this series it looks like.
Question: Theoretically can you see Beckett coming back on short rest in Game 4 and potentially pitching three games in this series if the Sox are down 2-1 or 3-0 and – if not – would they have Daisuke Matsuzaka or Curt Schilling lined up to pitch a potential Game 7 scenario?
PG: Right now they’re lined up for Schilling to pitch Game 7, but let’s just say that Josh throws 95-100 pitches and he can come back in Game 4 and they’re down 2-1 then I don’t see any reason why they don’t come back with him.
Remember the story hasn’t been about the power for Beckett this year as much as it’s been about the command. This is a guy that basically threw 96-99 last year but this year in the start against the Angels the other night he basically was sitting 94-mph – he threw a couple at 96 – but it was all about command with that cutter, throwing the curveball occasionally, and that great change up that he’s come up with…the two-seamer.
It was all about command with him and it’s not about ‘oh how hard can he throw’. And we all saw in 2003 when he came out in 2003 to Yankee Stadium on three days rest and showed that he can do it. I remember being at the World Series, and I was hanging out early at the ballpark with A.J. Burnett and three or four other guys on that staff and we were talking about how cocky Josh was.
He’s not as cocky now as he was then, but I remember A.J. Burnett saying to us ‘look what we’re talking about right now…that’s why there is no chance, no chance that the Yankees are going to win tonight’
Everybody on the Marlins believed that with Josh Beckett nobody was going to beat them, and if they felt that way about him as a 23-year-old pitching on three day’s rest then there’s no way the Red Sox shouldn’t feel that way about him now at 27.
What does this series come down to?
PG: I think it comes down to Papelbon vs. Borowski. I think that the difference is the Red Sox will win one or two games against Joe Borowski. And I hate to say that about a guy that had to come back through the Independent League and through Mexico and battles and never gives up, but I just have a vision of Manny Ramirez hitting a grand slam off Joe Borowski in the ninth inning of Game 7 to win 5-4.
That’s what I think it’ll come down to. There will be key match-ups. I think there are match-ups like Okajima coming in and staying in to pitch to batters…coming in for Sizemore and staying in to pitch to Hafner and I think we’ll also see situations because Rafael Perez is so nasty to left-handed hitters. Rafael Perez against David Ortiz is a very interesting match-up, but in the end I don’t think the Indians have enough to close down games with Joe Borowski.